Wil Vanderbilt Continue to Rise in Rankings

Vanderbilt baseball has stellar computer rankings and RPI. But with a resume that's just meh, with few truly great wins and a .500 conference record, the Commodores (28-11, 9-9 SEC) are not at the top of the list to host an NCAA regional.

Hopes aren't dead for Vanderbilt yet, though. With four tough series upcoming against ranked teams in Texas A&M, Georgia, Arkansas and LSU, there will be plenty of opportunities to build its resume and increase its already strong RPI.

Here's how the Commodores can still put themselves in position to host even after a slow start:

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How RPI works

RPI is calculated by adding three components: the team's winning percentage, opponent winning percentage and opponents' opponent winning percentage. Opponent winning percentage counts for 50% of the score, and the other two components count for 25%.

Thus, the most important factor in boosting RPI is winning games. At 28-11, Vanderbilt has a strong record thanks to winning most of its nonconference games. Losing to bad teams can tank a team's RPI quickly — and the Commodores are one of six teams who haven't lost to a team outside the top 100 in RPI this season.

Freshman left-hander Devin Futrell is second in the nation with eight wins and has made sure Vanderbilt easily takes care of business in the midweeks, keeping the Commodores' winning percentage strong overall. But Vanderbilt's next two midweeks will be most important: Louisville is an ACC team that will almost certainly make a regional and Middle Tennessee is 51st in the RPI in a strong Conference USA. If Futrell and company can lead the Commodores to victory in those two games, it will add two more wins against potential postseason teams to the resume.

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Resume boost

Vanderbilt's problem right now isn't RPI, though. Instead, the Commodores are still unranked in several polls and listed as a No. 2 seed in regional projections due to a light resume. The best team the Commodores have beaten in a series this year is Florida, which is now 6-12 in the conference. In order to host a regional, Vanderbilt will need to have something that stands out on the team-sheet.

Going forward, the metrics and the resume will probably dovetail. If the Commodores win enough to keep their RPI in hosting range, they will probably fill out their resume. Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia and Arkansas all rank in the top 26 of the RPI, so any series win among those will qualify as marquee.

How well Vanderbilt needs to actually do in those remaining games to host depends on how other teams do, but the Commodores could also get a leg up over any of the other four in the hosting battle with a head-to-head victory, especially on the road. Winning two of the four series could give Vanderbilt a chance to host, though a likely 15-15 SEC record in that case would be very light. The last team from the SEC, ACC or Pac-12 to earn a top seed in a regional with a .500 conference record was Florida State in 2017, which had three series wins over ranked teams and then won the ACC Tournament without dropping a game.

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Winning three of the four series and finishing with a 16-14 or 17-13 SEC record, plus wins over Louisville and Middle Tennessee, would make a stronger case. Like 2017 Florida State, the Commodores could also earn a hosting spot by making noise in the SEC Tournament, where their pitching depth could give them a leg up.

It will be a tough task at this point for Vanderbilt to play postseason games at Hawkins Field, but it isn't out of the question if the Commodores can find more consistency through the last month of the season.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.

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Source: https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/college/vanderbilt/2022/04/26/vanderbilt-baseball-rpi-rankings-ncaa-tournament-regional-outlook-2022/7414967001/